DemocraticSPACE has compiled its list of 68 battleground ridings in this election.
Montreal-area ridings on the list include:
- Jeanne-Le Ber, the southwest/Verdun riding Liberal heritage minister Liza Frulla lost to an unknown Bloc candidate in 2006. (You’ll also notice the Green’s Claude William Genest, currently running in Westmount, came in last place with 5% of the vote)
- Brossard-La Prairie, another Bloc steal from the Liberals in 2006, formerly Jacques Saada’s riding.
- Outremont, the Thomas Mulcair NDP by-election win riding, which also covers some of the Plateau and a lot of Côte des Neiges.
- Vaudreuil Soulanges, the riding Marc Garneau lost in 2006 and is now being contested by Conservative senator-to-get-a-cabinet-post Michael Fortier. Includes Vaudreuil, St. Lazare, Hudson, Rigaud and everything else between the two rivers.
Absent from the list is Westmount-Ville-Marie, which it expects to go to the Liberals’ Garneau; Papineau, which it expects will be an easy steal for Justin Trudeau; and adjacent Ahuntsic, which Liberal Eleni Bakopanos is expected to take back from Bloquiste Maria Mourani.
Brossard-La Prairie is definitely going back to the Liberals (Brossard is the most multicultural city in Quebec, and immigrants always vote Liberal en masse). With Bloc support slipping, Jeanne Le Ber should be a Liberal seat again as well. Outremont will stay with the NDP, as Thomas Mulcair is very popular. Vaudreuil will stay Bloc, as its still a Montreal-area riding, and the Conservatives will have great difficulty even penetrating the 450 region.
Derek,
Do you mind stating your riding ?
I think you are completely in the far left field.
Brossard-La Prairie, is the most multicultural city in Qubec, but the ethnic-cultural vote will go to the Conservatives.
The Liberal candidate is not even in on the same playing field as the Bloc, Conservative candidates. To better illustrate this, the Liberals have not put up any posters. The NDP stands no chance, he only put posters in the city of Brossard, completely ignoring 1/2 of the riding territory. The Green candidate is not even on the radar, her profile not even being published in local newspapers.
It will be an extremely tight race between incumbent Bloc MP who has done nothing for the community in the last 30 months, and a very strong conservative candidate who has been working in the riding for over 2 years.
I’m a resident of the Saint-Lambert riding, which could be a tight race as well.
Saint-Lambert was a Liberal stronghold for years, but in the last two elections it went Bloc (Maka Kotto). Now that Kotto is a Quebec MNA, we’ll see if that affects the Bloc’s popularity in the riding. The Liberal candidate, an anglophone from out west was more or less “dropped” in the riding by Dion (in exchange for helping is leadership campaign). The Tory candidate is campaigning for the 3rd time here, ending up 3rd both times. The NDP candidate is a former sovereignist who was the head of a South Shore environmental organization.
I don’t understand why you think that the allophone/immigrant vote of Brossard will go to the Conservatives? The Tories and ADQ supporters are similar groups, and I don’t believe that there are a lot of minorities (be they anglo or allo) in this province who vote for either of them. La Prairie only forms a small part of the riding’s population (not even 20%), Candiac is a little over 10%, and the rest is essentially Brossard.